The latest employer survey from Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce found 71% of respondents expect the Wisconsin economy to be in a recession within the next 12 months.
Among those expecting a recession, 34%, a plurality of respondents, think the downturn will arrive in the fourth quarter of this year. Another 24% expect it to arrive in the first quarter of 2023, 13% expect the second quarter and 21% are unsure on the timing. Just 8% expect a recession to hit Wisconsin in the current quarter.
The survey covered 216 employers that make up a representative sample of WMC’s membership.
Respondents were also pessimistic about supply chain and inflation issues being resolved anytime soon with 59% saying inflation would not return to normal until 2024 or later and 54% saying the same for supply chains.
Just 8% of respondents expect inflation to return to normal by the first half of 2023 or sooner and 14% expect that timeline for supply chains.
Two-thirds of respondents said their costs to do business have increased by more than 10% over the past year, including 42% seeing an 11% to 20% increase, 17% seeing a 21% to 30% increase and 8% with an increase of more than 30%.
Despite inflation and supply chain challenges, respondents were more optimistic about Wisconsin’s economy than the country as a whole. Nationally, 39% of respondents expect to see the U.S. economy decline over the next six months compared to 16% expecting a decline for Wisconsin.
Another 31% of respondents expect the national economy to be flat compared to 39% feeling that way about Wisconsin.
For the country, 29% of respondents expect moderate to good growth while 45% expect that growth for Wisconsin.
Respondents also felt better about the current state of Wisconsin’s economy with 44% rating it as strong or very strong and 47% describing it as moderate. Just 26% of respondents said the U.S. economy is strong or very strong and 27% described it as weak or very weak, compared to 9% for Wisconsin.
However, views on Wisconsin have been trending down. In WMC’s winter survey, 58% of respondents said the state’s economy was strong.
