Many Americans simply shudder at the notion that the United States may one day lose its title as the largest economic power in the world.
Is the world heading back toward the strata of the 15th century, when China and India comprised more than half of the global economy?
Regal Ware president Jeff Reigle and Milsco Manufacturing president Clif Perryman both think so.
"I think it is going to happen within our lifetime," Reigle said. "The basic formula for GDP (gross domestic product) is national per capita income times the number of people. As the per capita income in China comes up, they will become the more powerful force in the world. It is coming quickly."
While Reigle thinks a country such as India, with its more progressive government and English-speaking population, could rise faster in its standard of living, the fact that China is home to 1.3 billion people means it has more critical mass.
However, Perryman believes the sheer size of China may slow the speed with which economic conditions improve in that nation.
"They are already competitive in a number of areas," Perryman said. "The problem is that it is the rim cities that are doing it. They can keep moving back inward across that huge continent for decades and have a low-cost labor source somewhere within in their borders."
Eventually, Perryman said, China will evolve as the world’s largest economic power.
"Five years is too fast for them to become a world power," Perryman said. "But within 20 years, for sure, they will be a consuming nation. They will be a threat economically virtually to every other nation in the world that cannot compete with them."
Jan. 10, 2003 Small Business Times, Milwaukee
