Most chief executive officers at Wisconsin banks do not expect to see much change in the economy over the next six months, according to the latest survey from the Wisconsin Bankers Association.
The survey was conducted from June 3 to June 30 and included 72 respondents from Wisconsin banks.
As for the current health of the Wisconsin economy, the survey found 79% rated the state’s economy as “good” and another 7% said “excellent.” The combined total of 86% is up from the 83% who said good or excellent at the end of 2024. A year ago, 76% said good or excellent.
Looking ahead to the next six months, 59% of respondents said they expect the state economy to stay the same, roughly even with 58% at the end of 2024. Other responses were a bit more pessimistic than the previous survey with 24% now expecting the economy to grow, down from 29% at the end of 2024 and 17% expecting the economy to weaken, up from 14%.
The survey also found 23% of respondents think a recession is either likely or very likely over the next six months, up from 17% at the end of 2024.
However, another 39% said a recession is unlikely or very unlikely, although that figure is down from 49% at the end of 2024.
The WBA survey also included a new question focusing on tariffs and whether bank customers had reported any impact from the trade measures announced by President Donald Trump.
Most respondents, 57%, said their customers had not been impacted as of yet and another 16% said their customers are not impacted by the tariffs. Still, 24% said their customers had seen a negative impact while just 3% saw a positive impact.
When it comes to loan demand 65% of respondents said demand for business loans is good or excellent, up from 53% at the end of 2024.
On commercial real estate loans, 62% said demand is good or excellent, up from 54% at the end of 2024 and 39% a year ago.
For residential real estate loans, 30% said demand is good or excellent, up from 18% at the end of 2024 and 28% a year ago.
The survey does show more improvement in residential real estate loan demand over the past year. In mid-2024, 38% of bank CEOs in Wisconsin said demand for those loans was poor and another 34% said it was fair.
In the most recent survey, the percentage describing demand as poor was down to 27% and 42% described demand as fair.
Looking ahead, 72% of bank CEOs expect residential real estate loan demand to stay the same over the next six months while 20% expect growth. A year ago, those figures were 65% and 29% respectively.
For commercial real estate loans, 65% expect demand to stay the same while 17% expect growth and 17% expect demand to weaken. At the end of 2024, 22% expected growth and 61% expected demand to stay the same.
Wisconsin bank CEOs are also not expecting change in demand for business loans with 69% forecasting it will stay the same, up from 56% at the end of 2024. Just 20% are expecting growth, down from 41% in the previous survey.
