Picture this. The year is 2045. You’re woken up by your AI-powered virtual assistant, which helps you prioritize your tasks for the day and order groceries for dinner, accounting for every family member’s personal preference. You use your phone to order a ride, but not simply an Uber. You order an air taxi to make
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Roxanne Baumann, Baumann Global[/caption]
The next 10-plus years will likely continue to be fraught with tension between the U.S. and China, said Roxanne Baumann, global business strategist at Pewaukee-based Baumann Global. She’s already seeing a strategic decoupling from China in semiconductors, artificial intelligence and defense-related technologies.
“Since the 2018 tariffs, U.S. firms have, at minimum, developed back-up supply chains in Vietnam, Mexico and India to offset China trade uncertainty,” said Baumann. “Bringing supply chains back to the U.S. is not a simple, fast or easy solution. Much would depend on what competitive pricing situation it would create. Countries who have adopted a protectionist strategy have lost out in innovation and growth.”
So, how will decoupling from China impact Wisconsin in the next decade and beyond? Baumann predicts that Wisconsin companies will continue to see strong trading in pharmaceuticals, raw materials and consumer goods. However, sectors like technology, energy, agriculture and defense-related products will likely face increased trade restrictions – even the requirement of U.S. export licenses.
“Wisconsin companies must understand China’s true ambitions and adjust their strategies in their sector accordingly,” said Baumann.
The U.S.-China relationship remains incredibly fragile at the moment and any escalation – like the Chinese spy balloon discovered in 2023 – could spark a crisis, according to Patricia Kim, a Brookings Institution fellow and expert in Chinese foreign policy.
“At that point, even if the two sides can avoid a major conflict, the incentives for re-stabilizing the relationship (after two recent failed attempts) will be all but nil, extinguishing prospects for ‘responsibly managing’ U.S.-China competition for at least the near term,” said Kim.
Jeremy Kedziora, MSOE[/caption]
When looking to the future of AI, Jeremy Kedziora, Ph.D., the PieperPower endowed chair in artificial intelligence at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, told BizTimes that he believes there may be a “plateauing” of large language models.
Some researchers believe that public data for training large AI models could run out as soon as next year. Large language models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT or Meta’s Llama require a tremendous amount of data in order to learn and improve.
The data available to the AI models is finite, and this will eventually prevent substantial increases in the performance of large language models, Kedziora said.
If this happens, there will likely be a focus over the next few years to increase the efficiency of AI systems in terms of energy consumption and cost, he said. A trend to create agentic systems, or “effective, focused agents based on these large language models that have already been built,” may emerge, Kedziora said.
To help solve this problem, AI community experts are exploring synthetic data generation and novel data sources, such as IoT (Internet of Things) devices and simulations, to diversify AI training inputs, explained Mucci.
AI’s increasing prevalence will lead to heightened climate concerns due to rising energy demands, and improved automation in industries like manufacturing and health care. Several bold, long-term ideas for AI are also emerging, such as using the technology to mimic the neural structure of the human brain.
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Geoffrey Kasselman, Op2Mize Energy[/caption]
“AI is effectively on its way of being a supercharged overlay to everything, everywhere. Thus, AI is changing the way Wisconsinites work – and everything else for that matter,” said business futurist Geoffrey Kasselman, CEO of Op2mize Energy. “AI may be overhyped in terms of replacing most workers any time soon, but it is underhyped in terms of the benefits of working with a businessperson using AI versus one that isn’t.”
Wisconsin won’t win every tech race, said Todd McLees, founder and CEO of Milwaukee-based Pendio Group. And it doesn’t need to.
Instead, the state should focus on creating competitive advantages in key sectors like manufacturing. McLees believes Wisconsin could even carve out its own niche in quantum applications for manufacturing or biotechnology.
“Microsoft’s AI data centers give us a foundation, but our real strength will come from helping Wisconsin businesses and workers apply emerging technologies like AI effectively,” said McLees.
Dale Knapp, Wisconsin Counties Association[/caption]
Within the current decade, the baby boomer population will age past 75 and enter the years when many will need more intensive senior services, such as assisted living or nursing home care, said Dale Knapp, director of research and analytics for the Wisconsin Counties Association.
Southeast Wisconsin’s 75 or older population is expected to grow nearly 40% (57,000) in this decade and another 25% (23,000) in the 2030s.
“In other words, the elderly population (in southeast Wisconsin) is likely to be 90,000 larger in 2040 compared to 2020,” said Knapp. “Not only will the region require added infrastructure to provide needed services, it will also need the workers to provide those services.”
The younger half of the baby boom generation, which is nearly 20% larger than the older group, began turning 65 in 2020. In this decade, Knapp estimates southeast Wisconsin will see nearly 87,000 of its residents age past 65. As a result, the region’s population ages 25 to 64 will likely decline nearly 8% in this decade and another 2.2% by 2040.
As the pool of employees continues to shrink in the coming decades, Wisconsin’s leaders will need to find creative ways to attract and retain young knowledge workers.
“Because in 30 years anyone can go and thrive anywhere, the challenge to southeast Wisconsin is to understand they are increasingly competing to provide a ‘product’ that will outperform the alternatives,” said Kasselman.
There is currently no known “recipe” that shows a way for the government to pay for all the investment needed to accomplish regional success, Kasselman said. Instead, most of the financial investment will need to come from large corporations (like Microsoft’s forthcoming $3.3 billion data center campus in Mount Pleasant), residents, and traditional funding mechanisms, like taxes.
Todd McLees, Pendio Group[/caption]
“Automated electric delivery vehicles operate 24/7, moving everything from Amazon packages to fresh produce,” said McLees. “The roads evolve as EVs and autonomous vehicles take over, handling both passenger and freight traffic with precision timing.”
Long-haul travel will democratize and become much faster at a lower cost, said Kasselman. Wisconsinites should expect regional clusters to emerge with the upper Midwest joining forces to compete with the Northeast, Southeast and Pacific Northwest.
“As for state leadership, the power is in the hands of voters to self-educate on issues that matter and elect or empower leadership that are aligned with those issues,” said Kasselman. “This is increasingly important in the digital era.”
