Uncertainty continues to dictate decision-making among employers and employees in the labor market. While most industries are swaying employer-friendly with an abundance of applicants and a lack of open positions, a majority of employers remain hesitant to hire while candidates remain hesitant to make any drastic moves.
Wisconsin’s unemployment rate as of May this year is 3.3%, up from 2.9% in May of 2024, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Similarly, the national unemployment rate has risen slightly since May of 2024 from 4% to 4.2%.
While the rise is slow, “it’s definitely creeped up a little bit,” said Ryan Festerling, president and CEO of Brookfield-based QPS Employment Group. “I would say that uncertainty is both political and economic.”
In addition to a slight increase in unemployment, employee turnover is down and retention is up, said Festerling. During years of uncertainty following the COVID-19 pandemic, turnover was high as people faced a rapidly changing job market. Today, people are staying longer at their jobs and exercising more caution in finding a new job as uneasiness returns in light of an unstable economy and new regulations proposed by the Trump administration.
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Ryan Festerling[/caption]
Certain industries have maintained some immunity to the ups and downs of the labor market, including some skills and trade-type sectors like engineering controls, electrical welders and computer numerical control (CNC) jobs. These industries have remained in the candidate-friendly market alongside others like health care and technology.
Unemployment within the skilled trade sector is low and is one of QPS’s most popular picks for job candidates currently. QPS clients are looking at both entry-level skilled trade jobs as well as high-level jobs that require additional training and new proficiency in automation.
“Several manufacturers are looking to automate as much as they can in their facilities,” Festerling said. “If a company finds a way to identify efficiencies and have less low-skilled labor, it actually creates jobs.”
For example, if a manufacturer bought a new $2 million machine, the company would require someone to install it, program it and monitor it, he explained.
Hot industries like finance and accounting and hospitality continue to be challenging for employers as the jobs in those sectors are slightly more nebulous and require more specific credentials to obtain. Those markets are softening, Festerling said.
Adopt AI or fall behind
The narrative of artificial intelligence often revolves around the idea that without embracing it, companies and employees risk falling behind.
The same is now true for the labor market and its modern hiring practices.
High performers in the job market are widening the skills gap between themselves and the next class of workers by adopting AI into their workflow, said Amanda Daering, founder and CEO of Milwaukee-based talent recruitment firm Newance.
“High performers aren’t just using AI to be efficient, they’re using AI to learn new concepts, to integrate different ideas better,” Daering said. “For those people who aren’t yet embracing AI or are maybe uncomfortable with it, the gap is widening between their performance and their output.”
The surge of AI automation is coming not only with new efficiencies, but with challenges like inauthenticity in applications and mass applying.
Daering agreed that while most industries are swinging employer-friendly, employers are struggling with an increased number of AI-generated applications, which lack authentic content. Those resumes are often being sent in a mass application spree and are not tailored to employers’ criteria.
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Amanda Daering[/caption]
Anxiety among the immigrant workforce
The Trump administration’s massive crackdown on illegal immigration is sending shockwaves through the labor market as impacted employers and employees struggle to determine what comes next.
Many employers are leaning into their employee assistance programs or employee resource groups as immigration policy decisions are made on the federal level.
“The uncertainty creates hesitation, and in that hesitation there’s a lot of mistakes that are made,” Daering said. “Even waiting can be a mistake.”
In more severe cases, immigrant workers are being stripped of their residency status or work permitting, Festerling said.
The effect is twofold: a person with residency status who was legally permitted to work in the country is no longer permitted to work here, and the community responds with heightened anxiety.
“They all know someone,” Festerling said. “There’s stories that are being told – some are true, some are not true – but they all cause uncertainty and nervousness.”
At Pewaukee-based VJS Construction Services, the uncertainty has not deterred immigrant employees from applying.
While the number of immigrant applications hasn’t increased, VJS isn’t seeing that pool of candidates dwindle either. VJS hires more U.S. citizens than it does immigrants with legal documentation, but the volume of immigrant worker applications has remained steady “beyond whoever is sitting in the Oval Office,” said Ryan Niegocki, manager of field operations at VJS.
Clarity is the new charisma
Years ago, employers often focused on mission and purpose when it came to hiring. Today, with a new generation entering the workforce, employers are finding that candidates are seeking more transparency in their roles as well as meaning in their work.
“The clearer and more effective you are about how you’re going to decide, when you’re going to decide, and then to actually decide, will be very powerful,” said Daering.
In addition to transparency, taking care of current employees, remaining curious about what is happening just outside of the business, and creating flexible work arrangements to combat uncertainty is increasingly important, said Festerling.
“We’re all trying to figure out the triangulation between immigration, tariffs and business uncertainty and how they’re all going to interplay and interact,” he said.