As the three remaining Democratic candidates spar toward the Sept. 10 gubernatorial primary, Tom Barrett and Kathleen Falk would have a better chance than Jim Doyle of beating Republican Gov. Scott McCallum in the general election.
At least, that’s the indication from an e-mail survey of Small Business Times readers.
Barrett, a Congressman from Milwaukee, and Falk, Dane County’s executive, would both be within one or two percentage points of McCallum in a general election, according to the survey.
However, significantly more respondents would prefer McCallum to Doyle, who is Wisconsin’s attorney general.
Further, given the option of Doyle as the Democratic candidate, respondents were more likely to either refrain from choosing a candidate or to cross over to Libertarian candidate Ed Thompson, the survey indicated.
SBT and the Independent Business Association of Wisconsin (IBAW) distributed a survey by e-mail to IBAW members and to SBT’s broadcast e-mail list Aug. 19. More than 120 surveys were returned and tabulated by SBT staff.
Recipients by and large represented the business community, and many respondents expressed a strong preference for a Republican ticket.
McCallum support soft
Survey results indicated that support for McCallum among Republican respondents is tempered by concerns over his performance during his interim term.
Of those who identified McCallum as the candidate most beneficial to Wisconsin business, only 12% characterized his performance as excellent, while 37% said the job he was doing was either fair or poor.
In the overall survey, 40% rated the job McCallum was doing as poor and 27% rated it as fair. Only 5 percent of the respondents said McCallum was doing an excellent job.
"He is a lightweight," one respondent said of McCallum. "We need leadership."
Several McCallum supporters offered pointed criticism of their candidate, while others said they would vote for him by default.
"The Republicans did an awful job preparing for Tommy Thompson’s inevitable departure from the governor’s mansion," one respondent commented. "Scott McCallum just isn’t the guy to fill his shoes, and no amount of (President) Bush visits to Wisconsin will fix that. I’ll vote for him because he’s the Republican candidate."
Another respondent, who identified himself as a Republican, said he would vote for anyone but McCallum in the Nov. 5 general election.
Fiscal issues top the list
When asked to identify the most important issue facing the state, most respondents indicated fiscal concerns were at the top of the heap.
More than 36% of the respondents listed state spending and 23% identified taxes as their main concern.
"Until the Legislature starts trimming the state budget with a machete instead of an emery board, Wisconsin will continue to be one of the highest-taxed states in the nation," one respondent commented.
A lack of leadership was cited as the top priority by 28% of the respondents, and only 3% indicated the legislative caucus scandal was the most pressing priority.
"I don’t see the caucus scandal as all that different from any of the other scandals that have shaken this state," said one respondent. "Much of that leadership should be in clearing the way of too many regulations and leveling the playing field between bigger business and startup efforts."
A majority – 68% of the respondents – said Wisconsin is going in the wrong direction. About 27% were positive about the direction of the state, while 4% declined to answer.
While the number of returned surveys would represent an adequate statistical sample of those surveyed, the participant selection was not random. The survey results are best interpreted as a measure of sentiment in the privately held business community of southeastern Wisconsin, rather than a prediction for the general election.
Aug. 30, 2002 Small Business Times, Milwaukee
