Screenwriter William Goldman is famous for writing that in Hollywood, "Nobody knows anything." That sentiment could just as easily apply to presidential politics in 2008. Making predictions is typically a fool’s errand, but there are conclusions that can be drawn.
The Wisconsin primary and the 2008 campaign will turn on making connections – positioning and messages matter. Simplistically speaking: Do we want hope? White House experience? A "maverick?"
With that in mind, some predictions about Wisconsin’s Feb. 19 primary election.
Sen. Barack Obama wins Wisconsin. So does Sen. John McCain (I know, shocker!). It’s looking likelier by the day that we’ll be choosing from those two candidates again come November.
Ok, with that out of the way, some observations:
Wisconsin’s open primary means the normal rules don’t apply here.
A staunch Republican associate of mine doesn’t think much of McCain and plans to cross over and vote for Obama. She’s become an Obama backer, and I doubt she’s alone in party-switching – which is perfectly legal here and lends some unpredictability to the process.
Why the heck is Mike Huckabee still buzzing around?
Huckabee is one tenacious guy. He’s racking up some votes (not enough to translate into delegates) and running an ultra-low budget campaign that can remain relevant on free media alone. That’s fine, but Huckabee will be prodded to step aside at some point soon if he wants to play a meaningful role in 2008 and beyond.
If McCain has the GOP nomination in the bag, why is he coming to Wisconsin this week?
Wisconsin will be in play this year, just as it has been for the last two presidential elections. Wisconsin has gone Democrat for a generation but McCain has a legitimate shot at reversing that. The razor-thin margins of victory for Democrats in 2000 and 2004 suggest the GOP could win Wisconsin this year, with a whole lot of grassroots wooing, a little luck and a candidate, like McCain, who can move conservative Democrats and independents.
Will this whole Obama/Clinton brouhaha tear the Democratic Party apart?
Nah. But for Republicans, it’s fun to watch – and does threaten to leave the Dems in a weakened condition.
Does Sen. Hillary Clinton have to win Wisconsin to stay in the race?
No, but she sure needs the boost Wisconsin would bring to her seriously sagging campaign. The one-time front-runner lacks momentum – but don’t count out the Clinton machine just yet.
What are the candidates’ weak spots?
Obama is untested. Strong on ‘hope’ but light on experience. The press is lying in wait to start picking him apart once the honeymoon is over. But this year, those may be positives. Maybe America really wants a breath of fresh air after 20 years of Bushes and Clintons in the White House. Obama is optimistic, charismatic, personable, soothing. His public appearances and rallies are stunning displays, with huge and enthusiastic crowds.
As for Sen. Clinton, the ‘machine’ is in place, but the vein of anti-Clinton passion runs awfully deep in some circles. The GOP really wants Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee, because Barack Obama is a force in ways that Hillary Clinton is not.
Still reeling from 2006, big chunks of the GOP are feeling great unease with the prospect of conservative whipping-boy McCain as the party standard-bearer. Recently, his campaign-finance reform partner, Sen. Russ Feingold, had very warm things to say about McCain. That had to cause heart palpitations on both sides of the aisle – but does acknowledge McCain’s independent streak, which will strongly appeal to a lot of folks in Wisconsin.
So, if there is one takeaway here, it is this: Wisconsin is, as always, stubbornly independent and closely divided.
Watch the messages. And watch how people respond. Those differentiations will be key to victory.
Chris Lato is a public relations account executive at Avicom Marketing Communications in Waukesha. He is a former state Republican Party communications director who also posts blog commentary at www.wispundits.com.
