A growing number of Wisconsin bank chief executive officers expect the economy to grow in the next six months compared to six months ago or the same time in 2023, according to the latest survey from the Wisconsin Bankers Association.
The survey found 29% of respondents expect the Wisconsin economy to grow over the next six months, up from 8% in the mid-year survey and 9% a year ago. At the same time, a majority, 58%, expect things to stay the same and 14% expect the economy to weaken.
The WBA survey was conducted from Nov. 19 to Dec. 6 and incudes responses from 59 bank leaders in the state.
In addition to a more optimistic outlook for growth, bank leaders were also less concerned about a potential downturn. The survey found 49% of respondents describe a recession as unlikely or very unlikely, compared to 43% over the summer and 21% a year ago.
“Bank leaders — with their dual role as financial experts and active community members — are uniquely positioned to detect emerging trends,” said Rose Oswald Poels, president and CEO of the Wisconsin Bankers Association. “As indicated in this survey, 2025 will likely see a growing number of individuals, families, and businesses looking to move ahead with their financial goals, and banks stand ready to assist with their customers’ borrowing and other financial needs.”
Roughly two-thirds of respondents expect inflation to remain the same over the next six months. However, 22% now expect a rise in inflation, compared with 8% over the summer. Just 14% expect inflation to fall compared to 26% with that view in the mid-year survey.
As for loan demand, 41% of respondents expect business loan demand to grow over the next six months, up from 8% during the summer and 14% a year ago. Nearly half, 46%, of CEOs described current business loan demand as good and another 7% said excellent.
Similarly, 22% of respondents expect growing demand for commercial real estate loans, up from 8% during the summer. The most recent survey found 47% of executives rate current CRE loan demand as good and another 7% say it is excellent.
In residential real estate, 42% expect loan demand to grow over the next six months, compared to 29% over the summer and 20% a year ago. The survey found 14% of CEOs say current residential loan demand is good and another 4% say it is excellent. A majority, 61%, describe it as fair.
A year ago, the majority of executives, 59%, said residential real estate loan demand was poor. Another 28% said it was fair and 13% said it was good.
Even with the improved economic outlook, most CEOs did not expect dramatic changes in hiring. More than two-thirds, 68%, said they expect businesses in their market to maintain current staffing levels over the next six months, essentially flat compared to the 67% with that view over the summer.
There is some optimism for increased hiring with 29% expecting area businesses to increase hiring, up from 23% over the summer and 11% a year ago. The prospect of job cuts has also improved with just 3% expecting businesses to layoff employees, down from 11% this summer and 12% a year ago.
