Less than half of businesses surveyed by the Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce expect to see a year-over-year increase in sales, profits or total employees during the fourth quarter.
The survey of 83 area firms found 44% expect a rise in sales, 49% expect a rise in profits and 29% expect to increase total employment. All three figures were down from the third quarter.
Bret Mayborne, economic research director at MMAC, called the numbers “historically a sign of economic weakness.”
However, he noted that 75% of those surveyed are expecting to see sales growth in 2025. In the fourth quarter of 2023, just 63% of respondents were expecting an increase in sales this year.
Find more data on the economy at the BizTimes Wisconsin Economic Dashboard
In the MMAC’s most recent survey, optimism is more pronounced amongst employers with more than 100 employers. Among these larger employers, 53% expect a sales increase in the fourth quarter compared to 38% among small employers with less than 100 employees.
Similarly, 56% of large employers expect a profit increase compared to 45% of small firms. On employment, 41% of large companies expect an increase compared to just 22% of small firms.
An even more pronounced divide was present between manufacturing and non-manufacturing respondents with the latter expressing more optimism for the fourth quarter.
The survey found 54% of non-manufacturers expect a sales increase compared to 29% for manufacturers. When it comes to profits, 59% of non-manufacturers expect an increase compared to 35% of manufacturers.
For total employment, 29% of both manufacturers and non-manufacturers expect an increase. However, non-manufacturers were more likely to expect no change while manufacturers were more likely to forecast a decrease.
The divide did not carry over into the forecast for next year with 74% of manufacturers and 76% of non-manufacturers forecasting a 2025 sales increase.
Larger firms are more optimistic than smaller ones with 88% of those with more than 100 employees projecting a 2025 sales increase compared to 67% of smaller firms with that outlook.
Despite the optimism for 2025, respondents ranked economic uncertainty as their most concerning issue heading into the fourth quarter followed by price inflation, talent attraction and health care costs. Those issues were the same ones ranked as most concerning by MMAC survey respondents heading into the third quarter.
